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SAMPLE NEWSLETTER
January 11, 2009
Forecast 2010
Before we move into my Forecast for 2010 it is important to review my forecast from the January 4, 2009 newsletter. Here is the exact excerpt discussing the 2009 forecast:
Here is my 2009 forecast:
“There are 5 major cycles in cyclical analysis. Cycle 1 is the shortest time cycle and cycle 5 is the longest. In my newsletters , I talk about cycles 1-3 only for simplicity and because the other cycles have such a wide time range it would just confuse everyone. In this newsletter, I am going to bring in cycles 4 and 5.
Currently, our short term cycle (1) is “up”. The last date was 12/31 (down) and now we are up until Jan 7-10. After the 10th , we are down until 1/22. The primary cycle (2) is currently up as well until 1/10 and then it is down with a time window of 1/10 - 2/9. Cycle 3 has been down since Nov 22 but ends on 1/23. Cycle 4 has also been down (cycle 4 only has approximately 2 cycle changes a year). The unanswered question right now is did cycles 3 & 4 come in on November 21 completing their cycle or de we have one more move lower to maker a lower low before moving higher? I don’t have that answer but what I do know is we have one more primary cycle lower to go before the bigger cycles down end. Sometime in Jan/ Feb we will have a pullback . If we do not break the lows we will know cycles 3 & 4 came in on November 21. Either way, I will be adjusting my long term accounts into the market sometime during this time frame. I might not hit the exact bottom but that is fine as long as we can capture a big portion of the rally. I know once this primary cycle has completed the market will go higher. The only way we can confirm that the cycles have completed their downward spiral, is if the S&P 500 breaks the 1008 level.
After cycles 3 & 4 are done to the downside, the market will move higher until we reach a top as both cycles are then “up”. I don’t have an exact date yet on a top but it should take us into the March- May time window. It is possible we hit 1200 on that move higher. Once the top is in however, the market will move precipitously lower. I know this because the BEAR market has not ended. The reason is because cycle 5 does not end until at least the end of 2009 and could extend as late as 2011. I have a key date on 8/31/2010 but it is too far out to really know right now.
What I do know is once the bear returns it will be a rough road once again. I am forecasting a break of the 2008 lows in the summer/fall of 2009, hitting the 600-700 level on the S&P and 5500- 6500 on the Dow.”
Well, not bad looking back a year. My projections, S&P 600-700 and Dow 5500-6500 were right on the money. It happened sooner than expected, but I did warn you of a Jan/Feb pullback which turned out to be accurate. The only part that I didn’t hit exact is the span of time this rally has been in effect. I didn’t think it would last this long, but that could change soon. Here is my Forecast for 2010:
Forecast 2010
My forecast for 2010 should be the most pertinent report of any year, I have been writing this letter. This year we can see some of the most volatile and extreme moves some of us have ever seen in the market. I am going to be specific on my key dates to watch for the first couple of months but you will have to be a newsletter subscriber to see the key (reversal) dates for future months. For less than $1 a day, my weekly letter will be the most cost efficient service out there. I am not big on sales letters. I try to let the value sell itself.
For the month of January we have a KEY reversal date on 1/26-1/27. The way I see this month unfolding is a move lower coming this week (1/11) into a minor reversal date of 1/15-1/18. From there we move higher into the key date noted above and then we see the first real correction from the March 2009 rally. The month of February looks down but is it the end of the rally. Not necessarily, although possible. I have a KEY date in March that could be the bottom to the correction and from there we see a nice rally transform. This rally will not be as long as the 2009 rally was but could be substantial. It is possible we double top or break the highs creating a bubble. I am not sure if it will end in May or extend a few months. I will have to study that further as we get closer.
Once the rally (bubble) is complete then the bear should return. What happens when bubbles get popped? (That is a rhetorical question) This correction should take us into an October low and when its completed we could break the lows, but I’m not convinced that will happen this year. In 2011, I might have a different perspective on that. After the October low we should then see a rally into the end of the year.
Although that is a quick synopsis of 2010, there is a priceless advantage of being a member to see the exact reversal dates.
MARKET SIGNAL: BUY (as of 12/23)
Forecast 2010
My forecast for 2010 should be the most pertinent report of any year, I have been writing this letter. This year we can see some of the most volatile and extreme moves some of us have ever seen in the market. I am going to be specific on my key dates to watch for the first couple of months but you will have to be a newsletter subscriber to see the key (reversal) dates for future months. For less than $1 a day, my weekly letter will be the most cost efficient service out there. I am not big on sales letters. I try to let the value sell itself.
For the month of January we have a KEY reversal date on 1/26-1/27. The way I see this month unfolding is a move lower coming this week (1/11) into a minor reversal date of 1/15-1/18. From there we move higher into the key date noted above and then we see the first real correction from the March 2009 rally. The month of February looks down but is it the end of the rally. Not necessarily, although possible. I have a KEY date in March that could be the bottom to the correction and from there we see a nice rally transform. This rally will not be as long as the 2009 rally was but could be substantial. It is possible we double top or break the highs creating a bubble. I am not sure if it will end in May or extend a few months. I will have to study that further as we get closer.
Once the rally (bubble) is complete then the bear should return. What happens when bubbles get popped? (That is a rhetorical question) This correction should take us into an October low and when its completed we could break the lows, but I’m not convinced that will happen this year. In 2011, I might have a different perspective on that. After the October low we should then see a rally into the end of the year.
Although that is a quick synopsis of 2010, there is a priceless advantage of being a member to see the exact reversal dates.
MARKET SIGNAL: BUY (as of 12/23)
Cycle analysis signal #1: BUY
Technical indicator signal #2: BUY
Support levels: 10,000 on the Dow , 2,200 on the Nasdaq and 1,085 on the S&P.
Resistance : 11,000 on the Dow, 2,300 on the Nasdaq and 1,155 on the S&P.
Our TOP PERFORMER of the week was:
AUTO's
AMP - In at 38 and sold at 39.90, +5%.
AAP - In at 41.3 and still open.
GG - In at 40 and still open.
NTY - In at 44.36 and still open.
Other Trades:
SWC - In at 9.82 and it went as high as 12.9, +30%!!!
KFN - In at 5.9 and went up to 7.04, +19%!!!
PHM - In at 10.19 and moved to 11.33, +11%.
TC - In at 12.6 and moved as high as 14.4, +12%.
PVX - In at 7 and hit 7.65, +9%.
CAAS - Missed our fill but if you got in nice move from 21.5 to 24.8, +13%.
TIN - In at 21.18 and hit 23.32, +10%.
ISIS - In at 11.35 and move a little to 11.7, +3%
AMP - In at 40 and is up to 41.95, +4%.
NTY - In at 44.36 and still open.
Other Trades:
SWC - In at 9.82 and it went as high as 12.9, +30%!!!
KFN - In at 5.9 and went up to 7.04, +19%!!!
PHM - In at 10.19 and moved to 11.33, +11%.
TC - In at 12.6 and moved as high as 14.4, +12%.
PVX - In at 7 and hit 7.65, +9%.
CAAS - Missed our fill but if you got in nice move from 21.5 to 24.8, +13%.
TIN - In at 21.18 and hit 23.32, +10%.
ISIS - In at 11.35 and move a little to 11.7, +3%
AMP - In at 40 and is up to 41.95, +4%.
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