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March 9, 2008

Did our cycle date come in right on the money once again? The market’s decline continued last week as the economy weakened and the parlous condition of the banking industry became more acute. The stock market remained range bound for most of the week, but finally broke lower after the payroll numbers on Friday, provided more proof of an economy on the edge of recession. However, in the nick of time, Chairman Bernanke and the Federal Reserve came out of no where to try to rescue the market from the bears. They again, promised more liquidity in an attempt to prop up the market/economy. The initial result was to confuse the market. While it prevented the market from having a capitulation drop on Friday, in the end it may have only delayed the inevitable drop until next week. For the week, the Dow lost 3.04%, the S&P 500 fell 2.8% and the Nasdaq decreased 2.6%. For the year, the Nasdaq is now down 17%, the S&P 500 -12% and the Dow is down 10%.

From a technical perspective, the Dow and S&P made technical breaks below their support levels, so we are now headed towards the January lows. The Nasdaq is already there. When looking at the 5 year chart of the Nasdaq it shows the index broke through its 5-year trend line last week but closed above it on Friday. If it continues to fall the next support level is at 2012, a decline of another 10%.

 The only question now is will we double bottom or break those lows. If they are broken, watch out below. After reading the past few newsletters, no one should be surprised by the market fall over the past week and a half. Here is an excerpt from the February 24 newsletter: “We are now coming up on our short term cycle date of 2/25 and as you are aware the primary “up” cycle finished out on 2/20. The new primary cycle is now down and unless the cycle inverts, which only happened once last year, we should be going lower soon.”

Our last short term cycle date was February 25 and it was pretty close to being right on the money. It wasn’t but a day later that the market started to move lower. In addition, we knew the primary “UP” cycle had completed and we were starting a primary “DOWN” cycle as of February 21. The primary down cycle lasts until late March. However, as discussed we have a KEY short term cycle date coming up on March 14. Does this mean the market tanks this week and we bottom out on March 14? Very possible, but there are no guarantees. What we do know is all of our market signals are now on a SELL. Read the TOP market timers comments below.

Market Timer #1 - February 5, Sell signal. He remains bearish based on his Annual Forecast and his expectations for the short term are for new market lows.

Market Timer #2 - February 29, Sell signal. Bearish weekly momentum suggests the net trend should continue sideways to down over the next few weeks however, daily momentum suggests the immediate downside should be limited before a multi-day low is complete.

This is not a time to be buying stocks long but that could be changing very soon. If the market falls this week we should have some great opportunities on the long side. I will be putting together a buy list this week.